The driving force behind the recent weakness in the AUD/USD has been the divergence between the hawkish monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the dovish Reserve Bank of Australia. Simply stated, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates in December and may be on a path towards three more rate hikes in 2018. The RBA is not expected to raise rates until 2019. This is making the U.S. Dollar a more attractive investment.


Weekly Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. The AUD/USD is in no position to change the main trend to up, but the Forex pair is down eleven weeks from its last top, putting it in the window of time for a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom.

If the downside momentum continues then the next target is the bottom from the week-ending May 12 at .7329.

The main range is .7329 to .8124. Its retracement zone is .7727 to .7633. The AUD/USD is trading under this zone, helping to give it a strong downside bias. This zone is essentially controlling the longer-term direction of the market.

Weekly Technical Forecast

Look for the downside momentum to continue this week as long as the AUD/USD remains under the uptrending Gann angle at .7609.

A sustained move under .7609 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to extend into the next uptrending Gann angle at .7469. This is the last potential support angle before the .7329 main bottom.

Overcoming and sustaining a rally over .7609 could lead to a labored rally with potential targets at .7633 and .7684.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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